Overview of the March 2025 Weather Events

Between March 13 and March 16, 2025, a series of intense weather disturbances swept across parts of the United States, resulting in significant hazards. Preliminary evaluations by reinsurance broker Gallagher Re have estimated insured losses to range from $1 billion to $3 billion, marking the first billion-dollar severe convective storm (SCS) event of the year.

Impact and Damage Assessment

Steve Bowen, the Chief Science Officer at Gallagher Re, noted that over 100 confirmed tornadoes occurred during this period, including 13 tornadoes rated as either EF3 (10 instances) or EF4 (3 instances). These events were accompanied by substantial hail, destructive straight-line winds, flooding, and wildfires, all of which inflicted notable physical damage.

As the peak of the US SCS season, traditionally spanning from April to June, approaches, it’s worth noting that both 2023 and 2024 experienced a record of 10 separate multi-billion-dollar events.

Insurance Coverage and Economic Impact

Gallagher Re highlighted that the majority of damage—primarily from wind and hail affecting homes, businesses, vehicles, and agriculture in the Midwest, Southeast, and East Coast—is typically covered under standard insurance policies. Additional losses arose from wildfires in Oklahoma and Kansas, ignited by intense non-thunderstorm winds.

Prior to this event, the 2025 SCS season had been relatively quiet, with insured losses around $1 billion, a stark contrast to the higher figures recorded during the first quarters of 2023 and 2024.

Shifting Patterns in Insurance and Climate

Gallagher Re has remarked, “The increasing financial toll from US severe thunderstorms has become a pressing issue within the insurance sector, as underwriters strive to enhance combined ratio performance against this peril.” Their report also observed that, following a challenging 2023, the US market’s combined ratios showed improvement in 2024.

The SCS peril has evolved into a ‘new normal,’ where annual nominal insured losses frequently exceed $40 billion. In 2024, the US matched a record of 10 multi-billion-dollar insured loss SCS events, tying with 2023.

Over the past two years (2023-2024), insured losses have exceeded $123 billion, with $65 billion recorded in 2023—a record high—and $58 billion in 2024, adjusted for inflation. Although large hail usually accounts for 50% to 80% of insured SCS losses in the US, recent events highlight the significant impact of tornadoes and straight-line winds, especially in densely populated regions.

Socioeconomic and Climate Factors

While climate change is a contributing factor, the sharp rise in losses is primarily driven by socioeconomic elements, including urban expansion, an increase in housing units, rising costs of construction materials and labor, inflation, and overall greater societal wealth.

Despite forecasts by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices predicting the outbreak nearly a week in advance, reports indicate that more than 40 individuals lost their lives in these recent severe weather events.